A comparison of inferential analysis methods for multilevel studies: implications for drawing conclusions in animal welfare science

Investigations comparing the behaviour and welfare of animals in different environments have led to mixed and often conflicting results. These could arise from genuine differences in welfare, poor validity of indicators, low statistical power, publication bias, or inappropriate statistical analysis. Our aim was to investigate the effects of using four approaches for inferential analysis of datasets of varying size on model outcomes and potential conclusions. We considered aggression in 864 growing pigs over six weeks as measured by ear and body injury score and relationships with: less and more enriched environments, pig's relative weight, and sex. Pigs were housed in groups of 18 in one of four pens, replicating the experiment 12 times. We applied four inferential models that either used a summary statistic approach, or else fully or partially accounted for complexities in study design. We tested models using both the full dataset (n = 864) and also using small sample sizes (n = 72). The most appropriate inferential model was a mixed effects, repeated measures model to compare ear and body score. Statistical models that did not acco unt for the correlation between repeated measures and/or the random effects from replications and pens led to spurious associations between environmental factors and indicators of aggression, which were not supported by the initial exploratory analysis. For analyses on smaller datasets (n = 72), due to the effect size and number of independent factors, there was insufficient power to determine statistically significant associations. Based on the mixed effects, repeated measures models, higher body injury scores were associated with more enrichment (coef. est. = 0.09, p = 0.02); weight (coef. est. = 0.05, p < 0.001); pen location on the right side (coef. est. = 0.08, p = 0.03) and at the front of the experimental room (coef. est. = 0.11, p = 0.003). By comparison, lower ear injury scores were associated with more enrichment (coef. est. = -0.51, p = 0.005) and pen location at the front of the experimental room (coef. est. = -0.4, p = 0.02). These observed differences support the hypothesis that injuries to the body and ears arise from different risk factors. Although calculation of the minimum required sample size prior to conducting an experiment and selection of the inferential analysis method will contribute to the validity of the study results, conflict between the outcomes will require further investigation via different methods such as sensitivity and specificity analysis

Evaluation of Simvastatin as a Disease-Modifying Treatment for Patients With Parkinson Disease: A Randomized Clinical Trial

\ua9 2022 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.Importance: Current treatments manage symptoms of Parkinson disease (PD), but no known treatment slows disease progression. Preclinical and epidemiological studies support the potential use of statins as disease-modifying therapy. Objective: To determine whether simvastatin has potential as a disease-modifying treatment for patients with moderate PD. Design, Setting, and Participants: This randomized clinical trial, a double-blind, parallel-group, placebo-controlled futility trial, was conducted between March 2016 and May 2020 within 23 National Health Service Trusts in England. Participants aged 40 to 90 years with a diagnosis of idiopathic PD, with a modified Hoehn and Yahr stage of 3.0 or less while taking medication, and taking dopaminergic medication with wearing-off phenomenon were included. Data were analyzed from May 2020 to September 2020, with additional analysis in February 2021. Interventions: Participants were allocated 1:1 to simvastatin or matched placebo via a computer-generated random sequence, stratified by site and Hoehn and Yahr stage. In the simvastatin arm, participants entered a 1-month phase of simvastatin, 40 mg daily, followed by 23 months of simvastatin, 80 mg daily, before a 2-month washout period. Main Outcomes and Measures: The prespecified primary outcome was 24-month change in Movement Disorder Society Unified Parkinson Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS) part III score measured while not taking medication (high scores indicate worse outcome). The primary futility analysis included participants who commenced the 80-mg phase and had valid primary outcome data. The safety analysis included all participants who commenced trial treatment and is reported by dose at time of event. Results: Of 332 patients assessed for eligibility, 32 declined and 65 were ineligible. Of 235 recruited participants, 97 (41%) were female, 233 (99%) were White, and the mean (SD) age was 65.4 (9.4) years. A total of 216 patients progressed to the 80-mg dose. Primary outcome analysis (n = 178) indicated the simvastatin group had an additional deterioration in MDS-UPDRS III score while not taking medication at 24 months compared with the placebo group (1.52 points; 2-sided 80% CI, -0.77 to 3.80; 1-sided futility test P =.006). A total of 37 serious adverse events (AEs), including 3 deaths, and 171 AEs were reported for participants receiving 0-mg simvastatin; 37 serious AEs and 150 AEs were reported for participants taking 40 mg or 80 mg of simvastatin. Four participants withdrew from the trial because of an AE. Conclusions and Relevance: In this randomized clinical trial, simvastatin was futile as a disease-modifying therapy in patients with PD of moderate severity, providing no evidence to support proceeding to a phase 3 trial. Trial Registration: ISRCTN Identifier: 16108482

The Use of Postoperative Antibiotics Following Endoscopic Sinus Surgery for Chronic Rhinosinusitis: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Background Endoscopic sinus surgery is performed for medically recalcitrant chronic rhinosinusitis. There is no universally accepted strategy regarding post-operative antibiotics despite the high rates of usage worldwide. The aim of this study was to analyse patient-reported and objective outcomes behind antibiotic use following endoscopic sinus surgery. Methods A search of electronic databases was performed. Eligible randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and observational trials were included. The primary outcome was patient reported outcome measures. Secondary outcomes were local infections, endoscopy scores and adverse events. Meta-analysis was performed. Results Of 1045 publications identified, 7 were included in the qualitative synthesis and 5 RCTs were included in meta-analysis. Antibiotic regimens varied between studies in terms of antibiotic selection, timing commenced and duration of use. Meta-analysis suggested no significant difference between placebo and antibiotics in patient reported outcome measures (standardised mean difference (SMD) –0.215, 95% confidence interval (CI) –0.637 to 0.207) or endoscopic scores (SMD –2.86, 95% CI –0.846 to 0.273). There was no consistent definition in reporting of infection; therefore, this outcome cannot be comprehensively considered. No severe adverse events were attributable to antibiotics. Conclusions From the studies analysed, there is no level 1 evidence to suggest that antibiotics improved patient outcomes following sinus surgery. However, there was significant heterogeneity in outcome measures and no clear data exists regarding the effects of antibiotics on postoperative infections. The available evidence at present is not enough to make a recommendation in either direction. Further designed larger RCTs are required to investigate these questions in more detail. </jats:sec

Surviving streptococcal toxic shock syndrome: a case report

Streptococcal toxic shock syndrome and associated myositis caused by group A beta-hemolytic streptococcus pyogenes generally have a poor outcome despite aggressive operative treatment. Frequently the diagnosis is missed initially as the clinical features are non-specific. The progression to a toxic state is rapid and unless definitive treatment measures are initiated early, the end result can be catastrophic. We report a previously healthy patient who had features of toxic shock syndrome due to alpha haemolytic (viridans) streptococcus mitis which was treated successfully with antibiotics, aggressive intensive care support including the use of a 'sepsis care bundle', monitoring and continuous multidisciplinary review. Life and limb threatening emergencies due to streptococcus mitis in an immune-competent person are rare and to our knowledge, have not previously been described in the English scientific literature. Successful outcome is possible provided a high degree of suspicion is maintained and the patient is intensively monitored

Evaluation of Simvastatin as a Disease-Modifying Treatment for Patients With Parkinson Disease: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Current treatments manage symptoms of Parkinson disease (PD), but no known treatment slows disease progression. Preclinical and epidemiological studies support the potential use of statins as disease-modifying therapy. Objective: To determine whether simvastatin has potential as a disease-modifying treatment for patients with moderate PD. Design, Setting, and Participants: This randomized clinical trial, a double-blind, parallel-group, placebo-controlled futility trial, was conducted between March 2016 and May 2020 within 23 National Health Service Trusts in England. Participants aged 40 to 90 years with a diagnosis of idiopathic PD, with a modified Hoehn and Yahr stage of 3.0 or less while taking medication, and taking dopaminergic medication with wearing-off phenomenon were included. Data were analyzed from May 2020 to September 2020, with additional analysis in February 2021. Interventions: Participants were allocated 1:1 to simvastatin or matched placebo via a computer-generated random sequence, stratified by site and Hoehn and Yahr stage. In the simvastatin arm, participants entered a 1-month phase of simvastatin, 40 mg daily, followed by 23 months of simvastatin, 80 mg daily, before a 2-month washout period. Main Outcomes and Measures: The prespecified primary outcome was 24-month change in Movement Disorder Society Unified Parkinson Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS) part III score measured while not taking medication (high scores indicate worse outcome). The primary futility analysis included participants who commenced the 80-mg phase and had valid primary outcome data. The safety analysis included all participants who commenced trial treatment and is reported by dose at time of event. Results: Of 332 patients assessed for eligibility, 32 declined and 65 were ineligible. Of 235 recruited participants, 97 (41%) were female, 233 (99%) were White, and the mean (SD) age was 65.4 (9.4) years. A total of 216 patients progressed to the 80-mg dose. Primary outcome analysis (n = 178) indicated the simvastatin group had an additional deterioration in MDS-UPDRS III score while not taking medication at 24 months compared with the placebo group (1.52 points; 2-sided 80% CI, -0.77 to 3.80; 1-sided futility test P = .006). A total of 37 serious adverse events (AEs), including 3 deaths, and 171 AEs were reported for participants receiving 0-mg simvastatin; 37 serious AEs and 150 AEs were reported for participants taking 40 mg or 80 mg of simvastatin. Four participants withdrew from the trial because of an AE. Conclusions and Relevance: In this randomized clinical trial, simvastatin was futile as a disease-modifying therapy in patients with PD of moderate severity, providing no evidence to support proceeding to a phase 3 trial. Trial Registration: ISRCTN Identifier: 16108482

Need for recovery amongst emergency physicians in the UK and Ireland: a cross-sectional survey.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the need for recovery (NFR) among emergency physicians and to identify demographic and occupational characteristics associated with higher NFR scores. DESIGN: Cross-sectional electronic survey. SETTING: Emergency departments (EDs) (n=112) in the UK and Ireland. PARTICIPANTS: Emergency physicians, defined as any registered physician working principally within the ED, responding between June and July 2019. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: NFR Scale, an 11-item self-administered questionnaire that assesses how work demands affect intershift recovery. RESULTS: The median NFR Score for all 4247 eligible, consented participants with a valid NFR Score was 70.0 (95% CI: 65.5 to 74.5), with an IQR of 45.5-90.0. A linear regression model indicated statistically significant associations between gender, health conditions, type of ED, clinical grade, access to annual and study leave, and time spent working out-of-hours. Groups including male physicians, consultants, general practitioners (GPs) within the ED, those working in paediatric EDs and those with no long-term health condition or disability had a lower NFR Score. After adjusting for these characteristics, the NFR Score increased by 3.7 (95% CI: 0.3 to 7.1) and 6.43 (95% CI: 2.0 to 10.8) for those with difficulty accessing annual and study leave, respectively. Increased percentage of out-of-hours work increased NFR Score almost linearly: 26%-50% out-of-hours work=5.7 (95% CI: 3.1 to 8.4); 51%-75% out-of-hours work=10.3 (95% CI: 7.6 to 13.0); 76%-100% out-of-hours work=14.5 (95% CI: 11.0 to 17.9). CONCLUSION: Higher NFR scores were observed among emergency physicians than reported in any other profession or population to date. While out-of-hours working is unavoidable, the linear relationship observed suggests that any reduction may result in NFR improvement. Evidence-based strategies to improve well-being such as proportional out-of-hours working and improved access to annual and study leave should be carefully considered and implemented where feasible

Evaluation of Simvastatin as a Disease-Modifying Treatment for Patients With Parkinson Disease: A Randomized Clinical Trial

This is the final version. Available on open access from the American Medical Association via the DOI in this recordData Sharing Statement Stevens. Evaluation of Simvastatin as a Neuroprotective Treatment for Patients With Parkinson Disease. JAMA Neurol. Published October 31, 2022. doi:10.1001/jamaneurol.2022.3718 Data Data available: Yes Data types: Deidentified participant data How to access data: By request to the data custodian/sponsor representative ([email protected] ). When available: With publication Supporting Documents Document types: None Additional Information Who can access the data: Researchers undertaking ethically approved purposes and on execution of a valid data sharing agreement. Types of analyses: Specified ethically approved purpose. Mechanisms of data availability: With a signed valid data sharing agreement.mportance Current treatments manage symptoms of Parkinson disease (PD), but no known treatment slows disease progression. Preclinical and epidemiological studies support the potential use of statins as disease-modifying therapy. Objective To determine whether simvastatin has potential as a disease-modifying treatment for patients with moderate PD. Design, Setting, and Participants This randomized clinical trial, a double-blind, parallel-group, placebo-controlled futility trial, was conducted between March 2016 and May 2020 within 23 National Health Service Trusts in England. Participants aged 40 to 90 years with a diagnosis of idiopathic PD, with a modified Hoehn and Yahr stage of 3.0 or less while taking medication, and taking dopaminergic medication with wearing-off phenomenon were included. Data were analyzed from May 2020 to September 2020, with additional analysis in February 2021. Interventions Participants were allocated 1:1 to simvastatin or matched placebo via a computer-generated random sequence, stratified by site and Hoehn and Yahr stage. In the simvastatin arm, participants entered a 1-month phase of simvastatin, 40 mg daily, followed by 23 months of simvastatin, 80 mg daily, before a 2-month washout period. Main Outcomes and Measures The prespecified primary outcome was 24-month change in Movement Disorder Society Unified Parkinson Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS) part III score measured while not taking medication (high scores indicate worse outcome). The primary futility analysis included participants who commenced the 80-mg phase and had valid primary outcome data. The safety analysis included all participants who commenced trial treatment and is reported by dose at time of event. Results Of 332 patients assessed for eligibility, 32 declined and 65 were ineligible. Of 235 recruited participants, 97 (41%) were female, 233 (99%) were White, and the mean (SD) age was 65.4 (9.4) years. A total of 216 patients progressed to the 80-mg dose. Primary outcome analysis (n = 178) indicated the simvastatin group had an additional deterioration in MDS-UPDRS III score while not taking medication at 24 months compared with the placebo group (1.52 points; 2-sided 80% CI, −0.77 to 3.80; 1-sided futility test P = .006). A total of 37 serious adverse events (AEs), including 3 deaths, and 171 AEs were reported for participants receiving 0-mg simvastatin; 37 serious AEs and 150 AEs were reported for participants taking 40 mg or 80 mg of simvastatin. Four participants withdrew from the trial because of an AE. Conclusions and Relevance In this randomized clinical trial, simvastatin was futile as a disease-modifying therapy in patients with PD of moderate severity, providing no evidence to support proceeding to a phase 3 trial. Trial Registration ISRCTN Identifier: 16108482JP Moulton Charitable FoundationCure Parkinson’s Trus

Simvastatin as a neuroprotective treatment for Parkinson’s disease (PD STAT): protocol for a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled futility study

This work is supported by grants from The Cure Parkinson’s Trust and JP Moulton Charitable Foundation. SB is funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care South West Peninsula (NIHR CLAHRC South West Peninsula).INTRODUCTION: Parkinson's disease (PD) is a progressive neurodegenerative condition affecting approximately 185,000 people in the UK. No drug has been proven to slow disease progression. Epidemiological and pre-clinical data support simvastatin, a widely used cholesterol-lowering drug with a well-established safety profile, having neuroprotective properties. The aim of this study (Simvastatin as a neuroprotective treatment for PD (PD STAT)) is to determine whether simvastatin has the potential to slow PD progression. The study is part of the International Linked Clinical Trials initiative coordinated by The Cure Parkinson's Trust. This paper describes the protocol for the PD STAT study. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: PD STAT is a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, multi-centre, parallel group, futility trial in patients with PD of mild-moderate severity. 235 participants have been recruited and randomly allocated in a 1:1 ratio to receive either oral simvastatin or matched placebo. Treatment involves a 1-month low-dose phase (40 mg daily), followed by a 23-month high-dose phase (80 mg daily) and ends with a 2-month washout period. Participants are reviewed at clinic visits at 1 month, 6, 12, 18, 24 and 26 months post-baseline, with interim telephone follow-up to monitor for adverse events.The primary outcome is the change in the Movement Disorder Society Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale part III motor subscale score in the practically defined OFF medication state (OFF state) between baseline and 24 months. Primary analysis will be on a modified intention to treat basis and will include only those participants who progress to the high-dose phase of the study. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The protocol has been approved by the North East-Newcastle and North Tyneside 2 Research Ethics Committee. The results will be disseminated via research articles in peer-reviewed journals and presentations at local, national and international scientific meetings, as well as disseminated via patient groups, websites and networks. A summary of the study findings will be posted to participants at the end of the study. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN16108482 (prospectively registered); EudraCT 2015-000148-40; ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02787590; Pre-results.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Neurocysticercosis, a Persisting Health Problem in Mexico

Human neurocysticercosis is a severe parasitic disease caused by the installation of Taenia solium larvae in the central nervous system. Neurocysticercosis is still deeply rooted in Latin-America, Africa and Asia, where it develops its complete life cycle promoted by poor sanitary conditions. It is also emerging in developed countries due to human migration. Although hard data on the evolution of the disease incidence in endemic countries are lacking, its presence is being obscured by the growth of degenerative and metabolic diseases, creating the illusion of having disappeared